The Industry's Next Major Turning Point
What is the next major crossroad, for better or worse, in additive fabrication?
Anyone in the business, research or education that works in a fast-moving area of technology must do his or her best to anticipate what is ahead. If one moves forward aimlessly, they will likely end up lost, much like a hiker in a heavily wooded forest without a map and compass or a familiarity of the area. One must do their homework and understand the possible difficulties that lie ahead. Note, though, that this month's installment is not about challenges, but rather opportunities. In preparation for the journey. what might the hiker learn? Will he or she be treated to a beautiful waterfall, crystal clear lake, colorful plants, snow topped mountain peaks or something much less desirable? Reducing the next major turning point for the industry to a single occurrence, development or technology is not possible. I believe the industry will, instead, experience an enduring wave of events, each of which will impact its course. It will not come without storms, fires and floods, but the striking sounds, smells and sights will prevail and offer an environment within which people will want to stay.
Widening of System Prices
As of July 2006, the cost of additive systems spanned from a low of
about $15,000 for a 3D printer to a high of $1.4 million for a metal
deposition system. Desktop Factory is expected to ship its new 3D
printer for $5,000 to $7,000 around September 2006. As technologies and
markets develop, expect prices to drop further. Meanwhile, at the
high-end, companies will produce large-capacity and specialized systems
for industrial use. As rapid manufacturing increases in popularity,
organizations will be able to justify systems that cost $2 million or
more. These systems will ship in very low volume, while much less
expensive 3D printers will ship in relatively high volume.
Concept Modeling
The days of buying
models for early design and conceptualization from a service provider
are over. Designers are now producing them in-house. The use of
affordable additive machines by designers, engineers and others will
expand dramatically as systems and materials improve and prices
decline. Most service providers are now providing parts for rigorous
functional testing and series production. Over time, they will lose
some of this business as 3D printers improve and become suitable for a
wider range of applications.
Expanding Application of 3D Printers
There
is a misconception about the future use of low-cost 3D printers. Most
believe that they will be used almost exclusively for design and
conceptual modeling applications. This may be true for the majority of
them in the foreseeable future, but an increasing number of
organizations will apply them in unconventional ways and push their
limits beyond their intended application. Already, there are documented
cases in which organizations have used 3D printers to successfully
manufacture series production parts. The idea will expand as more
people gain access to the technology and apply their creativity and
ingenuity.
Expanding Application of 3D Printers
There
is a misconception about the future use of low-cost 3D printers. Most
believe that they will be used almost exclusively for design and
conceptual modeling applications. This may be true for the majority of
them in the foreseeable future, but an increasing number of
organizations will apply them in unconventional ways and push their
limits beyond their intended application. Already, there are documented
cases in which organizations have used 3D printers to successfully
manufacture series production parts. The idea will expand as more
people gain access to the technology and apply their creativity and
ingenuity.
Vertical Marketing
The manufacturers of additive systems and materials will be challenged
to target and market to a growing range of discrete groups. Among them:
architecture/engineering/construction (A/E/C), geographic information
systems (GIS), jewelry, dentistry, medicine, figurines, video games,
museums and courtrooms. Meanwhile, most system manufacturers will need
to continue to market and sell products to the mainstream sectors
including automotive, aerospace/military, consumer products and
electronics, business and industrial machinery, and education/research.
Most companies have limited budgets for marketing, advertising,
exhibiting and selling. Consequently, the system and material
manufacturers will be faced with determining which groups to target and
when, and which to ignore. The overwhelming temptation to go after more
markets than resources allow will stretch some companies to a point of
ineffectiveness.
Maturity of Service Providers
The
time when service providers could "shoot from the hip" is gone. Margins
no longer permit it. Quotations, project management, accounting and
delivery must now be done with precision. The service providers of
today are more sophisticated and are increasingly functioning like
contract manufacturers. To survive, these companies must be well-oiled
and tuned "machines," with every part functioning efficiently and with
purpose. Companies that once offered something for everyone have faded
since the heydays of the 1990s. Those that are thriving have targeted
particular industries and are offering special services that are not
commonly available in-house within product development groups at OEMs.
Discovery Among Manufacturers
Most manufacturing companies have not yet considered the use of
additive processes for part production. It will not be a good fit for
some, but for others, rapid manufacturing will produce new business
opportunities that are difficult to fathom today. As the "light bulb"
illuminates at these companies, a growing wave of organizations will
try it for the first time and some will be astounded by the results.
They will buy additive systems and custom-tailor them for their
particular needs. For large industrial segments, the system
manufacturers will develop specific machines, or versions of an
existing machine, to meet the demand. Development of special software
and materials, as well as pre-and post-processing steps, will enhance
the offerings and help accelerate the growth of rapid and custom part
manufacturing in a wide range of industries.
Startup Ventures
Scores of new
companies will emerge from seemingly nowhere. Entrepreneurial spirit,
coupled with the alluring notion of launching a part-making business
with an affordable additive system, will be sufficient motivation for
many. Small groups of individuals and family operations will
manufacture everything from custom jewelry, action figures and bobble
heads to parts for antique restorations, remote control aircraft and
museum artifacts. Already, many ideas are in the heads of countless
individuals as they consider how they might turn the distinctive
capacities of digitally driven design and additive fabrication into a
new business. As you chart your course for the future of additive
fabrication, consider the vast number of changes, developments and
opportunities that the industry will experience. With proper focus and
preparation, you can take pleasure in the journey without getting lost
or overly frustrated along the way.
